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Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation into the asymmetric vulnerabilities of Indian Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) amid rising geoeconomic fragmentation and the disruption of critical global maritime trade routes. Utilizing a comprehensive econometric framework that combines structural gravity models with high-frequency shipping and firm-level customs and balance sheet data, this study evaluates how disruptions at vital maritime chokepoints—such as the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait—propagate through international supply chains to affect resource-constrained enterprises in developing economies. Our findings reveal that maritime bottlenecks induce severe cost-push inflation and protracted transit delays, resulting in acute working capital squeezes and a structural contraction in export volumes for Indian MSMEs, particularly within labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, and light engineering goods. Furthermore, the econometric results demonstrate that firm-level export intensity, low balance sheet liquidity buffers, and the absence of financial hedging mechanisms significantly exacerbate vulnerability to exogenous shipping shocks. The study concludes with strategic policy recommendations, emphasizing the necessity of transitioning from rigid "just-in-time" paradigms to resilient "just-in-case" operational frameworks, alongside targeted liquidity management, digital trade facilitation, and proactive trade corridor diversification by policymakers and export promotion councils.

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Citation: Shreya Dixit (2026) Global Maritime Bottlenecks and Indian MSMEs: An Econometric Assessment of Supply Chain Shocks and Resiliency Dynamics. Epistora J. Econ. & Fin. Stud. 1(1), 1-14. Article EJEFS-2026-111